If Giannis Antetokounmpo’s tenure with the Milwaukee Bucks ends this summer, it will show that his commitment to winning championships outweighs his loyalty to the team. This could serve as a warning to small-market contenders like Oklahoma City, Minnesota, and Indiana. While their relationships with stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Tyrese Haliburton are strong, these good vibes may only last as long as the Thunder, Timberwolves, and Pacers can continue to compete.
It has been 15 years since LeBron James left the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat, marking the start of the NBA’s player-empowerment era. Since then, superstars like Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Paul George, and Jimmy Butler have left smaller markets for bigger cities. Oklahoma City, Minnesota, and Indiana felt these departures deeply.
The Thunder, Timberwolves, and Pacers have developed superstars and built contenders around them, similar to how the Bucks built around Antetokounmpo. However, if a team doesn’t win, the pressure on the front office to satisfy its superstar increases. The Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers rather than face the possibility of him leaving. Small markets must always wonder if their superstar will leave them too.
Players age, contracts increase, and luxury taxes skyrocket. The latest collective bargaining agreement is designed to close championship windows almost as soon as they open. We are now seeing its effects on the next generation of superstars, as rosters have deteriorated around players like Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić.
While we once thought superstars might stay in small markets for life, we must now consider the possibility that they, too, are products of the empowerment era. Their franchises have kept them satisfied for a decade, but all things come to an end. NBA assets depreciate, and once there is nothing left to wield power over, eyes begin to wander.
Oklahoma City is getting expensive. Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are due maximum contracts in 2026, when Gilgeous-Alexander will be eligible for a five-year, $380 million extension. The cost of these three players will likely force the Thunder to lose most of their current depth. If the Thunder win this year’s championship, they will have only one season to run it back before the CBA takes its toll.
The Timberwolves recognized early what they had in Anthony Edwards and traded six first-round draft picks for Rudy Gobert in 2022. This led to their first Western Conference finals appearance since the early 2000s. However, financial costs came quickly, and they swapped Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. This recent success is both a blessing and a curse. It has given rise to Edwards but also given him a taste of contending, which he will expect moving forward.
The Pacers made a big-swing trade for Pascal Siakam just as Haliburton’s rookie contract was ending. Together, they are working on max contracts that will eat 55-60% of Indiana’s salary cap for the next three seasons. This was not expected to make them contenders, but Haliburton’s heroics have given them home-court advantage in the conference finals.
The Pacers will find themselves in a math equation. Myles Turner is a free agent at season’s end, and his $20 million salary was a bargain this past year. He will expect a raise, but the Pacers can afford it since Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and Obi Toppin are on affordable contracts. However, locking into these contracts may mean the Pacers have already found their ceiling.
This is how hard it is to win a championship and keep a superstar satisfied in a small market. One misstep, and a window closes. No team could possibly be better positioned to sustain success than the Thunder, and even they will feel the financial crunch in one season’s time. Decisions for the Pacers and Timberwolves come even sooner. If Gilgeous-Alexander, Edwards, or Haliburton eventually move on from their teams, the NBA will have only itself to blame, as this is what the league’s new CBA has created.