Pacers vs. Thunder: Have the Pacers found a blueprint for success against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the NBA Finals?
OKLAHOMA CITY — Rick Carlisle wants to make one thing abundantly clear: The Pacers are not looking for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go off.
“We are not looking to get Shai going,” he said Saturday on the eve of Game 2 of the 2025 NBA Finals. “That doesn’t make any sense.”
That stands to reason! If the other team’s best player has the ball a ton, and is doing a lot with it, it’s reasonable to assume that it would be a bad thing for your defense.
Here’s the thing, though:
• In the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs against the Pacers, Donovan Mitchell wound up averaging 34.2 points on 25 field goal attempts per game, finishing a mammoth 41% of the Cavaliers’ offensive possessions with a shot attempt, foul drawn or turnover — a usage rate more than 10% higher than it had been against Miami the previous round. (Injuries to Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and De’Andre Hunter played a role there.) In a possibly related story: Only one other Cleveland player (Mobley) averaged more than 15 points per game in the series, and a Cavaliers team whose league-leading offense assaulted the record books all season long scored just 109.6 points per 100 possessions in Mitchell’s minutes in the conference semifinals — same as the 25th-ranked Toronto Raptors managed during the regular season. The Pacers drummed Cleveland out of the playoffs in five games.
• In the Eastern Conference finals against the Pacers, Jalen Brunson went off, averaging 30.7 points on 20.8 field goal attempts per game, finishing 34.4% of the Knicks’ offensive possessions with a shot attempt, foul drawn or turnover — a usage rate nearly 5% higher than it had been against Boston the previous round. In a possibly related story: Only one other New York player (Karl-Anthony Towns) averaged more than 18 points per game in the series, and a Knicks team that ranked fifth in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the regular season scored just 114.3 points-per-100 in Brunson’s minutes in the conference finals — a league-average scoring rate. The Pacers drummed New York out of the playoffs in six.
• And hey, sure, given your druthers, you’d certainly prefer that the NBA’s reigning Most Valuable Player not score 30-plus points on you — as Gilgeous-Alexander did on Thursday, pouring in 38 to lead the Thunder in Game 1. If he’s going to, though, you’d probably like those points to come as inefficiently as possible. Say, on 30 shot attempts — tied for the third-highest total of his career. And probably while soaking up a ton of possessions. Like, for example, a 37.1% usage rate — the third-highest mark of his playoff career. And maybe even while dominating the ball to a greater degree than usual. For instance, a total time of possession of 8.8 minutes — up more than two minutes from the regular season, and more than one minute from the first three rounds. In a possibly related story: Only one other Oklahoma City player (Jalen Williams) scored more than 15 points in Game 1, and a Thunder offense that scored a scorching 122.4 points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor during the regular season, and 116.2 points-per-100 with SGA at the controls through the first three rounds of the postseason, scored just 104.7 points-per-100 in the MVP’s minutes in Game 1 — a sub-Wizardian rate of offensive inefficiency that would’ve ranked dead last in the NBA during the regular season.
Oh, and the Pacers won the game.
How the Pacers played SGA in Game 1
OK, so maybe “give the best guy on the team as many shots as he can handle” isn’t exactly Indiana’s double-secret defensive game plan. As blueprints for success go, though, “force that player to make a ton of tough 2-point shots, keep anyone else from getting off, and when possible, funnel touches and shots to less-threatening options” — like, for example, by having rangy power forwards Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin cross-match against Thunder guard Luguentz Dort, sag way off of him to play more aggressive help defense, and then live with him taking dare-you