The Oklahoma City Thunder, the NBA’s top team in the regular season with a franchise-record 68 wins, secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves, after adjusting to the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks, have found their stride in the 2025 NBA playoffs, defeating both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in five games.
The two teams clash in the Western Conference finals, with the Thunder as significant -350 favorites at BetMGM. This marks the first time in the Thunder era that they are favored in a conference finals, and it’s the largest favorite the combined Seattle SuperSonics/Oklahoma City Thunder franchise has been in a conference finals since the Sonics began playing in 1967.
This is the third time the Wolves have reached the conference finals in franchise history and the second consecutive season they’ve made it this far. Last season, Minnesota lost to the Dallas Mavericks in five games in the conference finals.
Handicappers Michael Fiddle and Carl Sack share their insights on the Thunder-Wolves series and their best bets:
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (-350) vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves (+280)
Fiddle: “I favor the Thunder to win the series, but the best bet is on the NBA Finals future, as both teams have matchup advantages against Eastern Conference opponents. One of my top bets is Thunder to win the title at -160 or better, largely due to market patterns. Despite a slight downgrade in Oklahoma City’s power rating after a seven-game series with the Nuggets, Denver covered four games. I disagree with this adjustment. There’s also been consistent late action on Oklahoma City, widening the spread. When they were -4.5 on the road in Game 6, it shifted to -5.5 just before tip-off. The late movers have favored the Thunder, so I’m getting in early.
“I’m comfortable with the Thunder -7.5 in Game 1, expecting it to close at -8.5. The key matchup is Chet Holmgren versus Julius Randle. If Holmgren plays equally or better, I’m unsure how the Wolves can win. If he plays a bit better, this should be a decisive Thunder victory. Lou Dort will likely start on Anthony Edwards, with Dort and Alex Caruso mixing in. The Thunder’s versatility offers different looks and concepts for Ant, a significant upgrade from the defenses of the Warriors and Lakers. I don’t think the lack of rest will hurt the Thunder much.”
Best bets: Thunder to win NBA Finals at -160 or better; Thunder -7.5 in Game 1
Sack: “I’m cautious about looking too far ahead in a series unless there’s an edge that might disappear, and I don’t see that in either series. For the first game of the Western Conference finals, I have a number around -7, making it a fair line. I lean towards Minnesota due to the rest differential. Sometimes, when a team rests for over a week, rust becomes an issue. I don’t think the Wolves will be terribly rusty, and the extra days to prepare mentally and physically, coupled with the Thunder coming off a Game 7, could lead to a letdown spot.
“Regarding the total, I see it much higher. It opened at 213 or 214, now up to 218. Historically, Game 1 of playoff series tends to be the highest scoring. Minnesota often starts games slower, with higher-scoring second halves, while Oklahoma City scores more in the first half. The first-half total is shaded to the under, which doesn’t make sense. The Thunder are more extreme to the 1H over than the Wolves to the first-half under. Certain referees, like Tyler Ford, also point to an over. I think the best approach is Minnesota’s team total for the full game or 1H over.”
Best bets: Wolves team total OVER 105.5, 1H Over 107.5