NBA Finals Predictions: Pacers vs. Thunder
The 2025 NBA Finals are here! Will the Thunder complete one of the greatest NBA seasons of all time? Or will the Pacers pull off a major upset? Our experts break down the series and make their championship predictions.
Biggest Question in the Finals
Tyrese Haliburton’s performance against OKC’s defense will be crucial. Haliburton has been a nonfactor against the Thunder in past seasons, averaging just 12 points per game in four matchups. However, he has proven doubters wrong all postseason long. Getting an aggressive Haliburton will be key for the Pacers to upset the Thunder.
Can the Pacers get enough stops against the Thunder’s high-scoring offense? OKC swept the regular-season series by scoring 123.5 points per 100 possessions against the Pacers defense. Limiting Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and the rest of Oklahoma City’s supporting cast will be essential for Indiana to keep the games tight.
Who Has the Most at Stake in the Finals
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the most at stake. If he wins the title and captures Finals MVP, he will join Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson as the only guards to seize both the regular-season and Finals MVP awards in the same season. A win would solidify his reputation as the league’s top big-game player.
Tyrese Haliburton also has a lot to prove. If he performs poorly against the Thunder’s defense, it could reignite the overrated allegations against him. A strong showing would continue to silence his critics.
X-Factors in This Series
Chet Holmgren’s defense against Pascal Siakam will be crucial. If he can limit Siakam and protect the paint, it will be difficult for Indiana to score enough to win the series.
Andrew Nembhard’s defensive assignment on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be critical. Nembhard struggled against SGA in the regular season, allowing him to score 27 points on 61% shooting.
Lu Dort’s ability to score and defend Tyrese Haliburton will be important. Dort has averaged 18.8 points per game against the Pacers over the last two seasons.
Myles Turner’s presence on both ends of the floor will be vital. He needs to be an athletic presence on offense and a deterrent on defense against SGA.
Aaron Nesmith’s switchability on defense and his elite 3-point shooting could be the difference for the Pacers.
After Game 1, Everyone Will Be Talking About
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will set the tone for the series. In their two regular-season matchups, SGA averaged 39 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, and 2 stocks on 56% shooting.
Lu Dort’s defense against Tyrese Haliburton will be a focal point. Dort’s physicality and defensive prowess will be crucial in neutralizing Haliburton.
The Thunder’s defense, known for its historical greatness, will be a sight to see. Their ability to force turnovers and convert them into transition opportunities will be a major talking point.
Chet Holmgren’s performance, especially if he slides over to center, will be critical. His impact on both ends of the floor will be significant.
Finals Prediction and Finals MVP
Thunder in 5. The Pacers will get hot and win one game, but the Thunder’s brilliance will ultimately prevail. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will win the Finals MVP, capping off a historic season.