The Oklahoma City Thunder, boasting a franchise-record 68 wins during the regular season, secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves, led by Anthony Edwards, overcame the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks and have advanced through the 2025 NBA playoffs, defeating both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in five games each.
As the two teams face off in the Western Conference finals, the Thunder are significant -350 favorites at BetMGM, marking the first time in the Thunder era they have been favored in a conference finals in their fifth appearance. This also represents the largest favorite the combined Seattle SuperSonics/Oklahoma City Thunder franchise has been in a conference finals since the Sonics’ inception in 1967, according to Sports Odds History’s database.
This is the third time the Wolves have reached the conference finals in franchise history and the second consecutive season they have advanced to this stage. Last season, Minnesota lost to the Dallas Mavericks in five games in the conference finals.
Handicapper Michael Fiddle offers insights on the Thunder-Wolves series and his best bets:
“I favor the Thunder to win the series, but the best bet is on the NBA Finals future, as both teams have matchup advantages against Eastern Conference opponents. One of my top bets right now is Thunder to win the title at -160 or better, largely due to market patterns. Despite a slight downgrade in Oklahoma City’s power rating after a seven-game series with the Nuggets, Denver covered four games in that series. I disagree with this adjustment. There has also been consistent late action on Oklahoma City, widening the spread. When they were -4.5 on the road in Game 6, it shifted to -5.5 just before tip-off. The late movers have favored the Thunder, so I aim to get in early.
“I’m comfortable with the Thunder at -7.5 in Game 1, expecting it to close at -8.5. The key matchup will be if Chet Holmgren performs equal to or better than Julius Randle; otherwise, I’m unsure how the Wolves can compete. If Chet plays slightly better, this should be a decisive Thunder win. I anticipate Lou Dort starting on Anthony Edwards, with Dort and Alex Caruso mixed in, but the variety of looks and defensive concepts the Thunder can throw at Ant, given their versatility, is on a different level compared to the Warriors and Lakers. This represents a significant upgrade in the defense Edwards will face, and I don’t believe the lack of rest will greatly impact the Thunder.”
Best bets: Thunder to win NBA Finals at -160 or better; Thunder -7.5 in Game 1